The press has been awash with talk of Iraq collapsing under the current crisis and breaking along sectarian lines. Whether this is likely or not, one real possibility that is emerging is of the Kurdish autonomous region of Iraq declaring full autonomy with recently extended borders incorporating the entire area inhabited by the Kurds in Iraq. President Barzani has told the BBC that a referendum on independence, which is the nation's goal, is being planned for the next few months. However, it is uncertain how well an independent Kurdistan would fare. Iraqi Kurdistan is surrounded by potentially hostile neighbours none of which would risk the instability this would cause among their own Kurdish populations. There are also uncertainties about how an independent state could progress, not just diplomatically, but economically too. On the other hand, maybe an opportunity like this will not present itself to the Kurds again. I hope to discuss some of these potential problems here.
